Brussels – In a blunt warning to European lawmakers, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte declared that Europe cannot defend itself without the United States and its military support. His remarks, delivered on January 26, 2026 to members of the European Parliament’s Security and Defence Committee in Brussels, have reignited debate about Europe’s defence capabilities and its reliance on transatlantic ties.
“Keep on Dreaming”: Rutte’s Stark Warning on European Self-Defense
Addressing EU parliamentarians, Rutte was clear: Europe cannot build an effective defence posture without the US. Europe and the United States, he stressed, are mutually dependent allies under the NATO framework — particularly regarding deterrence and security guarantees. His message was uncompromising: “Anyone who believes that Europe can defend itself without the US — keep on dreaming.”
The comments come amid ongoing discussions over European strategic autonomy — a concept that would see the EU develop stronger independent defence capabilities. In recent months, some European leaders have advocated a more self-reliant defence role for the continent, particularly in response to shifting US foreign policy priorities.
Defense Spending — A Doubling Required?
One of the most striking elements of Rutte’s speech was his assessment of Europe’s current defence spending. NATO allies had agreed in mid-2025 to increase military budgets steadily, with a target of 5 percent of GDP by 2035 for combined defence and security spending. However, Rutte asserted that this level would not be enough for true autonomy: Europe would have to more than double this target — to about 10 percent of GDP — to build a credible defence on its own.
He pointed out that such an increase would require massive investments — especially if Europe attempted to develop its own nuclear deterrent — something that is currently covered by the US nuclear umbrella. Without the United States, Rutte warned, Europe would lose its “ultimate guarantor of freedom.”
Why the US Still Matters
Rutte’s remarks underscored the continuing central role of the United States in the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). The alliance’s mutual defence clause, Article 5, binds member states to defend an ally under attack, and has long anchored European security in cooperation with Washington.
Although recent tensions — including controversial statements from US President Donald Trump about Greenland — have raised questions about the strength of American commitments, the alliance remains intact. Rutte noted that even Washington expects Europe to increase its own military contributions, but not to replace the transatlantic partnership entirely.
Strategic Autonomy vs. Transatlantic Dependence
Arguments for greater European autonomy have grown louder in recent years, with France among the most vocal proponents. Supporters contend that Europe must prepare for defence challenges independently — including threats from Russia and instability in neighbouring regions.
Despite this, Rutte suggested that a completely independent defence structure — separate from NATO — would likely be costly, complicated, and potentially advantageous for adversaries like Russia, who may prefer a divided European defence landscape.
His stance was echoed by other top NATO officials who emphasized the importance of maintaining strong cooperative ties with the United States while still encouraging European allies to take greater responsibility for their defence.
Reactions and the Road Ahead
Rutte’s remarks have sparked mixed reactions among European politicians and analysts. Critics argue that Europe must seize the moment to strengthen its own defence industry and reduce dependency on the US. Others caution that doing so might undermine decades of transatlantic cooperation that have underpinned peace and security.
Whether Europe can realistically commit to a 10 percent defence spending target — or even agree on the political will to do so — remains uncertain. For now, Rutte’s message is clear: a fully independent European defence is not achievable without the United States, and maintaining strong NATO ties remains critical.